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By Alexander Luyima – The Hoima Post
Uganda’s political climate is entering one of its most dangerous phases in decades. With the 2026 elections looming, the nation’s highest-ranking officials are making statements that openly question the need for elections at all while the president himself admits the system is “rotten and corrupt.”
This is no longer a quiet drift into authoritarianism; it is a public acknowledgment of a democracy in critical condition.
The Ssembabule Test Balloon
In early August, Lt. Gen. Proscovia Nalweyiso, Special Presidential Advisor on Defense and Security, told reporters:
> “We can suspend elections in Ssembabule for five years if Rwashande and Ssekikubo don’t behave. The government can run Ssembabule without any Member of Parliament, just as I previously suggested suspending elections in Kampala.”
She described Ssembabule as “full of misunderstandings and disorganization,” claiming elections there “have never been free and fair.”
To analysts, this was not just a local disciplinary threat. It was a trial balloon for normalizing the suspension of elections in politically inconvenient districts.
> “When a senior military figure proposes canceling elections, it’s no longer about a single constituency it’s about setting a precedent,” warns Dr. Samuel Kawuma, political governance expert at Makerere University.
Museveni’s Remarkable Admission
In a rare moment of candor, President Yoweri Museveni recently admitted that corruption and incompetence have seeped into every layer of Uganda’s governance.
> “When the head of state says the system is rotten but keeps the same actors in place, it is not reform it’s resignation,” says Sarah Nankya, director of the Democratic Futures Initiative.
The president’s words confirm what many Ugandans have long argued: the institutions designed to safeguard democracy have been hollowed out and those responsible for their decay are still in power.
A Blood-Stained Electoral Record
Uganda’s elections over the past two decades have repeatedly descended into violence, often with fatal consequences and no meaningful accountability:
Arua By-election, Aug. 2018: Opposition driver Yasin Kawuma shot dead; no public accountability.
Nov. 2020 Protests: At least 54 people killed nationwide after security forces opened fire; no transparent prosecutions.
Masaka Corridor, Dec. 2020: Francis Senteza, an opposition aide, killed; journalists Ashraf Kasirye and others shot while covering campaigns; inquiries promised, outcomes opaque.
Rukungiri & Amolatar, 2017–2018: At least three killed during political policing; opposition leaders charged instead of perpetrators.
Kasese Massacre, Nov. 2016: Over 100 people, including children, killed in a military raid on the Rwenzururu royal palace; no independent probe, commanders later promoted.
These incidents form part of a pattern: violence first, investigations later or never. Those implicated often return to the ballot or move up the chain of command.
Reporter’s Notebook: On the Ground During the Violence
By Mr. Ronald Kasirye (field notes, 2016–2021)
“Campaign days began with accreditation checks and ended with tear gas.”
“Uniformed and plain-clothes men often fired into the air sometimes into crowds.”
“Phones and cameras were targeted; footage that survived told a different story than official briefings.”
“After each incident, we were told ‘a report is coming.’ On the ground, families were burying their dead.”
These observations, corroborated by rights groups and press freedom watchdogs, show how elections have become theatres of fear rather than celebrations of choice.
From Managed Democracy to Militarized Rule
Over nearly 39 years in power, Museveni and the NRM have systematically dismantled safeguards:
2005: Presidential term limits removed.
2017: Presidential age limit scrapped.
Electoral Commission: Staffed with loyalists, weakening independence.
Civilian governance: Militarized, with generals in key ministries.
What remains for an entrenched ruler who has already rewritten the rules?
Analysts see three possible moves:
1. Expand military control over the electoral process, especially in opposition strongholds.
2. Delay or stagger elections under constitutional pretexts.
3. Declare extended states of emergency to indefinitely postpone democratic transition.
> “Uganda has moved from manipulated democracy toward the open consideration of electoral suspension,” observes Patrick Kabuye, a Kampala-based political commentator. “The 2026 vote may not even resemble an election—it could be a controlled legitimacy exercise.”
A Timeline of Political Manipulation
1986–1995: Museveni consolidates control, bans political parties under the “Movement” system.
2001: Multi-party politics reintroduced; elections marred by fraud and violence.
2005: Term limits removed, opening the path for indefinite rule.
2017: Age limits scrapped, ensuring Museveni’s eligibility.
2021: Opposition faces arrests, killings, and internet blackouts; election declared “not free and fair” by observers.
2026 (upcoming): Internal NRM fractures, rising opposition, and hints at possible suspension of elections in some areas.
The 2026 Risk Forecast
Civil society groups warn that the next election could be the most dangerous in Uganda’s post-independence history. Likely risks include:
Partial election suspension in targeted districts.
Massive military deployment in opposition strongholds.
Harassment and arrests of opposition candidates.
Media blackouts and social media restrictions.
Violence against protesters and journalists.
Without credible investigations into past killings, the state has little incentive to avoid repeating them.
A Slow Death or a Final Fight
The admissions by Museveni and Nalweyiso strip away the thin veil that once covered Uganda’s political reality. The coming months will determine whether the 2026 elections are a turning point for renewal—or the final nail in the coffin of Uganda’s electoral democracy.
For the younger generation, now the largest voting bloc, the choice is stark: accept another cycle of militarized, manipulated governance—or demand systemic change through peaceful, organized civic action.
If the warnings are ignored, Uganda may enter an era where the last thing to disappear is the right to vote itself, and by then, it may already be too late.
