How Trump’s Victory Could Reshape LGBTQ+ Rights in America

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to enter his second term, LGBTQ+ rights groups and individuals across the country are expressing deep concern about what lies ahead. With a Republican-majority Senate supporting his policies, Trump’s victory signals potential challenges for LGBTQ+ rights, particularly for transgender individuals.

During his campaign, Trump frequently used anti-trans rhetoric, which appeared across his speeches, ads, and platform statements. One ad asserted that Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, supported “they/them—not you,” signaling an intention to curtail policies supportive of non-binary and transgender people.

Reports indicate that Republicans spent over $215 million on anti-trans advertisements this election cycle, with Trump’s most inflammatory language aimed directly at trans Americans. Throughout his first term, Trump attempted to rollback protections for LGBTQ+ communities. As he takes office again, LGBTQ+ advocates are closely monitoring potential policy changes.

Outlined on Trump’s website under his “Agenda 47” platform, he emphasizes several plans related to LGBTQ+ rights. Among them, Trump proposes a ban on “men in women’s sports,” targeting trans women athletes, and vows to “cut federal funding for schools promoting radical gender ideology.” Trump has also suggested rolling back Biden-era anti-discrimination protections and implementing new laws aimed specifically at the transgender community.

Here are three key areas in which a second Trump term could impact LGBTQ+ rights:

### 1. **Military Ban on Transgender Individuals**
During his first term, Trump instructed the Department of Defense to reverse a policy allowing transgender individuals to serve openly in the military, arguing that it would save costs on gender-affirming care. Although President Biden overturned the ban in 2021, legal experts like Rutgers Law School’s Professor Katie Eyer anticipate that Trump may seek to reinstate it. Such a move would likely lead to another wave of lawsuits from LGBTQ+ advocacy groups.

### 2. **Health Care Restrictions**
Several state-led initiatives have emerged in recent years to ban gender-affirming care for minors, with nearly 39% of transgender youth now residing in states where such care is restricted. Trump’s agenda suggests plans to halt gender-affirming care for minors nationally, potentially by withholding federal funds from hospitals that provide these services. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has pledged to continue its legal battles against restrictive state laws and any new federal policies.

Tara McKay, Director of the Vanderbilt LGBTQ+ Policy Lab, explains that health care policies are largely determined by individual states, so federal attempts to impose such restrictions would likely face legal challenges. However, she warns that Trump’s stance could encourage more states to impose restrictive laws, drawing parallels to the divided “abortion landscape” of protected versus hostile states. California, for instance, is already preparing protective measures for LGBTQ+ residents in anticipation of Trump’s policies.

### 3. **Education and Identification Standards under Title IX**
Trump’s rhetoric has targeted trans women in sports, pledging to keep “men out of women’s sports” and directing Congress to interpret Title IX in a way that excludes trans women athletes. Biden expanded Title IX protections for LGBTQ+ students, though Trump’s platform indicates plans to repeal these protections and restrict federal funding for schools discussing gender identity.

Simone Chriss, Director of the Transgender Rights Initiative at Southern Legal Counsel, warns that redefining sex under Title IX could set a dangerous precedent that excludes transgender people from more than just sports, impacting educational access and even ID requirements. In states like Florida, new laws prevent residents from changing their gender markers on state IDs—a policy that could be implemented federally under Trump, restricting the accessibility of accurate identification for transgender people.

Chriss emphasizes that access to proper identification affects every aspect of a transgender person’s life, including their ability to secure housing and employment. “Every transgender client I have, if they don’t have an updated passport, I’m urging them to update it by January,” she says, pointing to the urgency the community feels as Trump’s return to office approaches.

Amid these potential changes, LGBTQ+ advocates and allies are preparing for legal challenges and mobilization efforts to support affected communities.