Opinion : Muhoozi Kainerugaba, A Threat to Democracy and A Distant Dream To Civilian Leadership

Uganda’s democracy has long been under threat, but the recent statements by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of President Yoweri Museveni and Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) in the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), have escalated concerns about the future of civilian leadership and democratic governance in the country. In an alarming declaration, Muhoozi boldly stated, “No civilian will lead Uganda after President Museveni. The security forces will not allow it. The next leader will be a soldier or policeman.” This assertion strikes at the heart of democracy in Uganda, highlighting the regime’s increasing reliance on militarization and its disregard for the will of the people.

Muhoozi’s statement underscores the deep entrenchment of the military in Uganda’s political landscape. As the Chief of Defence Forces, Muhoozi holds immense power, overseeing the administration and operational control of the Ugandan military. This position not only makes him one of the most powerful figures in Uganda but also places him at the center of an authoritarian system that has been systematically suffocating democracy for decades.

President Museveni, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, has long used the military as a tool to maintain control. The militarization of politics in Uganda was solidified during Museveni’s rise to power through guerrilla warfare, and the military has remained a central pillar of his regime. Muhoozi, as Museveni’s son and a senior military figure, represents the continuation of this trend—where the military not only enforces political decisions but actively shapes them. His statement about the future leadership being limited to soldiers or policemen reveals the regime’s plan to entrench itself further by excluding civilians from any meaningful participation in governance.

Rigged Elections and the Denial of Political Opposition

Uganda has had a troubling history of rigged elections and the suppression of political opposition, and Muhoozi’s remarks further cement the military’s role in undermining the democratic process. In the 2021 general elections, opposition leaders, particularly Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine), faced brutal crackdowns, arrests, and widespread intimidation from security forces. The election was marred by irregularities, including vote tampering, a shutdown of the internet, and harassment of opposition candidates and their supporters.

The opposition has repeatedly accused Museveni’s government of orchestrating a sham electoral process, designed to maintain the status quo rather than reflect the will of the people. The military, under Muhoozi’s leadership, played a critical role in suppressing protests and dissent during this period. Security forces routinely used excessive force to silence opposition supporters, leading to deaths, injuries, and numerous human rights violations. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented the excessive use of force by the Ugandan military and police during these elections, calling into question the legitimacy of Museveni’s continued rule.

Muhoozi’s statement about a soldier succeeding Museveni further undermines any hope for free and fair elections in Uganda. It suggests that the security apparatus will continue to manipulate the political process to ensure that power remains within the hands of a militarized elite, disregarding the aspirations of millions of Ugandans who seek democratic governance.

Human Rights Violations: A Regime of Repression

The Ugandan government’s reliance on military force extends far beyond election periods. The regime has consistently targeted opposition figures, civil society activists, journalists, and human rights defenders. The military, under Muhoozi’s command, has been implicated in numerous gross human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings of opposition members and protestors.

In the aftermath of the 2021 elections, reports surfaced of the abduction and torture of opposition supporters by security forces. Many young people, particularly those affiliated with the National Unity Platform (NUP) party, were detained incommunicado in military facilities. Families of the disappeared have continued to demand accountability, but the regime has largely ignored these pleas.

By positioning himself as a successor to Museveni, Muhoozi is not only advocating for a continuation of military rule but also signaling that the cycle of repression will persist. The military’s role in silencing dissent and oppressing opposition voices will remain central to how Uganda is governed under his leadership. This blatant disregard for fundamental rights such as freedom of expression, association, and assembly is a clear violation of international human rights standards and further erodes Uganda’s already fragile democracy.

Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s assertion that the next Ugandan leader will be from the military or police reflects a dangerous trajectory for Uganda. It signals the intent to maintain the status quo through force, intimidation, and authoritarian control, rather than allowing the people of Uganda to choose their leaders through democratic means.

This militaristic approach to governance, coupled with rigged elections and systemic human rights abuses, paints a grim picture of Uganda’s future. The prospect of Muhoozi taking over after Museveni only deepens fears that Uganda will continue to slide into a deeper authoritarian state where the military dominates politics, civilian leadership is sidelined, and democratic freedoms are further eroded.

In a functioning democracy, the role of the military is to protect the nation and uphold the constitution, not to determine its leadership. Uganda’s future should be in the hands of its people, not the barrel of a gun. Muhoozi’s blatant disregard for civilian rule threatens to undo any progress the country has made toward establishing a true democracy.

Uganda stands at a crossroads. The suffocating grip of military control, as personified by Muhoozi Kainerugaba, threatens to permanently stifle the democratic aspirations of its people. The international community must take notice and exert pressure on the Ugandan government to uphold democratic principles and human rights. Likewise, Ugandans must continue to demand accountability, transparency, and the right to freely elect their leaders without military interference.

As long as figures like Muhoozi remain in power, democracy in Uganda will remain a distant dream. It is up to both Ugandans and the global community to challenge this militaristic vision of leadership and work towards a future where the people, not soldiers, determine the destiny of the nation.